Parameter inference and model comparison using theoretical predictions from noisy simulations

When inferring unknown parameters or comparing different models, data must be compared to underlying theory. Even if a model has no closed-form solution to derive summary statistics, it is often still possible to simulate mock data in order to generate theoretical predictions. For realistic simulations of noisy data, this is identical to drawing realizations of the data from a likelihood distribution. Though the estimated summary statistic from simulated data vectors may be unbiased, the estimator has variance which should be accounted for. We show how to correct the likelihood in the presence of an estimated summary statistic by marginalizing over the true summary statistic in the framework of a Bayesian hierarchical model. For Gaussian likelihoods where the covariance must also be estimated from simulations, we present an alteration to the Sellentin-Heavens corrected likelihood. We show that excluding the proposed correction leads to an incorrect estimate of the Bayesian evidence with JLA data. The correction is highly relevant for cosmological inference that relies on simulated data for theory (e.g. weak lensing peak statistics and simulated power spectra) and can reduce the number of simulations required.Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures, published by MNRAS. Changes: matches published version, added Bayesian hierarchical interpretation and probabilistic graphical mode

Power-spectrum space decomposition of frequency tomographic data for intensity mapping experiments

We present a Bayesian framework to establish a power-spectrum space decomposition of frequency tomographic (PSDFT) data for future intensity mapping (IM) experiments. Different from most traditional component-separation methods which work in the map domain, this new technique treats multifrequency power spectra as raw data and can reconstruct component power spectra by taking advantage of distinct components' correlation patterns in the frequency domain. We have validated this new technique for both interferometric and single-dish-like IM experiments, respectively, using synthesized mock data that contain bright foreground contaminants, IM signals, and instrumental effects at different frequencies. The PSDFT approach can effectively remove the bright foreground contamination and extract the targeted IM signals using a Bayesian approach in a power-spectrum subspace. This new approach can be directly applied to a broad range of IM analyses and will be well suited to future high-quality IM datasets, providing a powerful tool for future IM surveys.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figure

Radio Galaxy Detection in the Visibility Domain

We explore a new Bayesian method of detecting galaxies from radio interferometric data of the faint sky. Working in the Fourier domain, we fit a single, parameterised galaxy model to simulated visibility data of star-forming galaxies. The resulting multimodal posterior distribution is then sampled using a multimodal nested sampling algorithm such as MultiNest. For each galaxy, we construct parameter estimates for the position, flux, scale-length and ellipticities from the posterior samples. We first test our approach on simulated SKA1-MID visibility data of up to 100 galaxies in the field of view, considering a typical weak lensing survey regime (SNR $\ge 10$) where 98% of the input galaxies are detected with no spurious source detections. We then explore the low SNR regime, finding our approach reliable in galaxy detection and providing in particular high accuracy in positional estimates down to SNR $\sim 5$. The presented method does not require transformation of visibilities to the image domain, and requires no prior knowledge of the number of galaxies in the field of view, thus could become a useful tool for constructing accurate radio galaxy catalogs in the future.Comment: 11 pages, 11 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRA

Cross correlation surveys with the Square Kilometre Array

By the time that the first phase of the Square Kilometre Array is deployed it will be able to perform state of the art Large Scale Structure (LSS) as well as Weak Gravitational Lensing (WGL) measurements of the distribution of matter in the Universe. In this chapter we concentrate on the synergies that result from cross-correlating these different SKA data products as well as external correlation with the weak lensing measurements available from CMB missions. We show that the Dark Energy figures of merit obtained individually from WGL/LSS measurements and their independent combination is significantly increased when their full cross-correlations are taken into account. This is due to the increased knowledge of galaxy bias as a function of redshift as well as the extra information from the different cosmological dependences of the cross-correlations. We show that the cross-correlation between a spectroscopic LSS sample and a weak lensing sample with photometric redshifts can calibrate these same photometric redshifts, and their scatter, to high accuracy by modelling them as nuisance parameters and fitting them simultaneously cosmology. Finally we show that Modified Gravity parameters are greatly constrained by this cross-correlations because weak lensing and redshift space distortions (from the LSS survey) break strong degeneracies in common parameterisations of modified gravity.Comment: 12 pages, 3 figures. This article is part of the 'Cosmology Chapter, Advancing Astrophysics with the SKA (AASKA14) Conference, Giardini Naxos (Italy), June 9th-13th 2014

The varying w spread spectrum effect for radio interferometric imaging

We study the impact of the spread spectrum effect in radio interferometry on the quality of image reconstruction. This spread spectrum effect will be induced by the wide field-of-view of forthcoming radio interferometric telescopes. The resulting chirp modulation improves the quality of reconstructed interferometric images by increasing the incoherence of the measurement and sparsity dictionaries. We extend previous studies of this effect to consider the more realistic setting where the chirp modulation varies for each visibility measurement made by the telescope. In these first preliminary results, we show that for this setting the quality of reconstruction improves significantly over the case without chirp modulation and achieves almost the reconstruction quality of the case of maximal, constant chirp modulation.Comment: 1 page, 1 figure, Proceedings of the Biomedical and Astronomical Signal Processing Frontiers (BASP) workshop 201

PkANN - II. A non-linear matter power spectrum interpolator developed using artificial neural networks

In this paper we introduce PkANN, a freely available software package for interpolating the non-linear matter power spectrum, constructed using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Previously, using Halofit to calculate matter power spectrum, we demonstrated that ANNs can make extremely quick and accurate predictions of the power spectrum. Now, using a suite of 6380 N-body simulations spanning 580 cosmologies, we train ANNs to predict the power spectrum over the cosmological parameter space spanning $3\sigma$ confidence level (CL) around the concordance cosmology. When presented with a set of cosmological parameters ($\Omega_{\rm m} h^2, \Omega_{\rm b} h^2, n_s, w, \sigma_8, \sum m_\nu$ and redshift $z$), the trained ANN interpolates the power spectrum for $z\leq2$ at sub-per cent accuracy for modes up to $k\leq0.9\,h\textrm{Mpc}^{-1}$. PkANN is faster than computationally expensive N-body simulations, yet provides a worst-case error $<1$ per cent fit to the non-linear matter power spectrum deduced through N-body simulations. The overall precision of PkANN is set by the accuracy of our N-body simulations, at 5 per cent level for cosmological models with $\sum m_\nu<0.5$ eV for all redshifts $z\leq2$. For models with $\sum m_\nu>0.5$ eV, predictions are expected to be at 5 (10) per cent level for redshifts $z>1$ ($z\leq1$). The PkANN interpolator may be freely downloaded from http://zuserver2.star.ucl.ac.uk/~fba/PkANNComment: 21 pages, 14 figures, 2 table